A Decision Support System for OPEC Oil Production Level based on Game Theory and ANN
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| Title | A Decision Support System for OPEC Oil Production Level based on Game Theory and ANN |
| Authors | |
| Abstract | In this paper, we propose novel decision support system (DSS) named OPEC-DSS to support OPEC’s decisions on oil production level. OPEC-DSS is based on two important factors in oil prices; the first is OPEC oil production level (OPEC-PL) and the second is USA oil imports level (USA-IL). The OPEC-DSS support the analysers and decision-makers in three following issues: 1) OPEC-DSS can propose the optimum decisions on OPEC-PL and USA-IL. 2) It can illustrate the strategies stabilizing the oil prices. 3) OPEC-PL can calculate the optimum OPEC-PL when USA-IL has been determined. The proposed system is based on Game Theory (GT) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). In GT model, OPEC plays with USA, as one of the major purchaser, to reach the maximum payoff formed by ANN. In fact the ANN is oil price predictor applied by the game model. The Nash Equilibrium Point(s) (NEPs) of the game is the optimum decisions and the strategies, fixing the oil prices, can be extracted by payoff function. According to the experimental results, the model can be used for decision-making in production, imports and exports of crude oil. |
| Publisher | Advances in Computational Mathematics and its Applications |
| Date | 2012-11-09 |
| Source | 2167-6356 |
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