System Dynamic Modeling for Spread of AIDS in representative Countries
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| Title | System Dynamic Modeling for Spread of AIDS in representative Countries |
| Authors | |
| Abstract | In this paper, we define Risk Index (RI) to quantify the risk degree of each country that is threatened by HIV. We select six countries that have the largest RI in the continent where they are located. Countries we select are South Africa, India, France, USA, Australia and Brazil. After that, we use a revised SIR model to estimate the rate of change of the number of HIV infections in the six countries and simulate the result of it on Matlab. Then we develop a model to predict the expected global investment on HIV/AIDS from 2006 to 2050 for the six countries from foreign aid donors from 2006 to 2050. Besides, we define an index named Safety Index (SI) and use the method of linear programming to estimate the optimized amount of money allocated on drugs and vaccine on Lindo when the SI is the largest. We also re-estimate the rate of change of the number of HIV infections in the six countries under the three scenarios using three revised SIR models separately. In the end, we write a white paper of recommendations to the United Nations according to our analysis of the issue. |
| Publisher | Advances in Computational Mathematics and its Applications |
| Date | 2013-04-29 |
| Source | 2167-6356 |
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